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Using Social Media as an Early Predictor of a New Drug's Market Share
Gideon Mantel In this 5-minute interview, recorded 22 May 2013, Gideon Mantel of Treato discusses how social media can predict the success of a new drug launch much faster than traditional methods. The drug in question is Tecfidera (formerly called BG-12 during clinical trials), a new multiple sclerosis drug that Biogen launched on April 13, 2013.

Gideon Mantel co-founded Treato because he saw how difficult it was for Internet users to extract meaningful insights from the billions of patient experiences shared throughout the Web.

"Many pharmaceutical companies try to measure the success of their launch based on weekly script trends," said Mantel in a blog post. "The difference between social media data and data derived from prescriptions is significant: social media data can predict the future, while script data record the past."

"Our early prediction is that -- assuming no significant side effects during the launch cycle -- Tecfidera will gain significant market share, primarily taking it away from Tysabri, Copaxone, and Aubagio," said Mantel.

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