How about this:
“The U.S. economy has been in recession for about a year, according to the research organization [NBER] that tracks economic cycles. The determination was made Friday and released to the public Monday.” (WSJ)
[It sure took them a long time for these dodos to release this information!]
According to NBER: “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”
I asked back in March 2008 if the pharma industry was in a recession (see here). From the start of that poll, the vast majority of respondents agreed that the industry was in a recession.
But using the NBER “peak and trough” definition of recession and looking at this chart (on left) of annual spending on direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising, it appears that the pharma industry economy “peaked” in 2006, one full year prior to the US economy as a whole!
I am predicting that the “trough” in the pharma economy won’t happen until 2009. If the US economy continues to lag the pharma economy by a full year, then I expect the US economy won’t be in expansion until 2010-2011!
P.S. AdvertisingAge confirms that the advertising industry began its recession before the general industry did: “Ad-industry employment has dropped by 52,000 since hitting its peak in November 2007” (see “No Surprise: We’re in a Recession“).