Using Social Media as an Early Predictor of a New Drug’s Market Share Gideon MantelIn this 5-minute interview, recorded 22 May 2013, Gideon Mantel of Treato discusses how social media can predict the success of a new drug launch much faster than traditional methods. The drug in question is Tecfidera (formerly called BG-12 during clinical trials), a new multiple sclerosis drug that Biogen launched on April 13, 2013.

Gideon Mantel co-founded Treato because he saw how difficult it was for Internet users to extract meaningful insights from the billions of patient experiences shared throughout the Web.

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“Many pharmaceutical companies try to measure the success of their launch based on weekly script trends,” said Mantel in a blog post. “The difference between social media data and data derived from prescriptions is significant: social media data can predict the future, while script data record the past.”

“Our early prediction is that — assuming no significant side effects during the launch cycle — Tecfidera will gain significant market share, primarily taking it away from Tysabri, Copaxone, and Aubagio,” said Mantel.

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